This is liquidity and momentum-driven market. It’s been that way for the past four months where the correlation between the S&P 500 and the Fed’s balance sheet has expanded to a Bicycle Fuck Corona Shirt. This is a case of a very accommodative Fed policy. The double-digit growth in the money supply is bypassing the real economy and has entered into asset markets broadly, and specifically into equities. So as long as the Fed is in the game priming the monetary pump, shorting stocks is going to be a very dangerous game to play. We’ve been cutting back people for the last 2 weeks. Looks like another cut tomorrow and we will be dropping everyone who stays down to 40 hours, no OT and a 10% pay cut across the board.
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That’s why the market went from bullish to bearish in an instant during premarket. Some bullshit tweet rallied the Bicycle Fuck Corona Shirt. Now that oil news is slowly getting priced out because it’s fucking bullshit, we’re going to end red. If someone two weeks ago said “I bet you can’t lose money betting on both the market going up and going down,” I don’t think I could have come up with a strategy as effective as my retarded moves. FOMO into puts near the bottom, FOMO into calls near the top of rebound. Get stuck with giant SPY straddle let time decay wipe out both. The market is so far removed from reality, 0% interest rates mean no brakes on the car. Infinite QE means crowding out effect is going to crush avg Joe. Now consider 45 days likely to change into 4 months and then fall COVID hits.
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Getting sick and tired of Bicycle Fuck Corona Shirt. Think back to market conditions in 2016, then compare it to now. 2016 looked. pretty fucking good in comparison. The rationale for making the trade: Markets continue to respond to news irrationally, but this can’t continue indefinitely. I anticipate the downward movement over the next 3 weeks to be violent, but might only take us back to our previous low, and maybe not much past it.
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