As the other person said, really not sufficient to be determined. But in addition, it’s worth noting that even a drop in specificity from 99.5 to 98.5 has a huge statistical impact when you’re talking about such low prevalences. To speak with any real confidence in rates like this you need a very high specificity, and you need to be very confident in your specificity being accurate. In the absence of Oakland Raiders And Los Angeles Lakers Heart Heartbeat Shirt this, these results should be approached very cautiously. That actually holds true for any case where the rates of falsity are equal to the rate of true infection (i.e., 90% sensitivity and specificity and 10% infection).
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Maybe. In fact, the authors use that to adjust their estimated prevalence upwards from the number of positives they actually measured. The big thing is, we don’t have enough actual, verifiable information on the actual specificity (or sensitivity) of the test. I’m not comfortable drawing any conclusions based on that, and honestly, neither should the authors. To make this more glaringly obvious: If the Oakland Raiders And Los Angeles Lakers Heart Heartbeat Shirt specificity of the kit is 95.0, and the sensitivity is [ doesn’t matter], and you test a population of people who have zero people actually infected, you will falsely identify 50 people per 1000 as being infected. Have you seen this preprint of an independent group that seems to find a really variable and lower specificity for a number of antibody tests? That is very cool! It looks like we were doing almost exactly the same thing in parallel, with Andrew using Stan and R while I was using JAGS and Matlab.
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In the Santa Clara study (with the analysis reexamined by people who don’t suck), for example, that 98.5 specificity is enough to drop the confidence interval to actually include 0. This means, more or less, that you’re 95% confident that the Oakland Raiders And Los Angeles Lakers Heart Heartbeat Shirt true value falls within that range, and that range includes the possibility that 0% of the population has COVID. This doesn’t mean the study is necessarily wrong or bad, but it means you probably haven’t created something that is a valuable reflection of the real world. Not having a genuinely accurate estimate of the sensitivity can skew the statistics wildly.
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